A geophysicist who warned about a major earthquake before a devastating tremor struck Colombia has issued a new warning about California.
Geologist Stefan Burns believes recent seismic activity could increase the risk of a powerful earthquake in California, saying the state is “super overdue” for a major event.
His warning comes after a magnitude 7.4 earthquake struck Colombia, causing widespread devastation, as well as two powerful earthquakes that hit Venezuela earlier this year.
Burns had previously suggested that the seismic activity in Venezuela could be followed by another major earthquake and has pointed to the subsequent Colombia quake as an example of why he is now watching California closely.
He stressed that earthquake forecasting is not an exact science and did not claim that a devastating California earthquake is certain to happen, however.
‘All of California is problematic right now’
Speaking during a YouTube livestream, Burns said he believes Southern California could face a particularly elevated risk because of its complex network of fault lines.
“California is super overdue,” he said.
“In general, just all of California but really more Southern California would be at greater risk because of this.”
According to Burns, the period he is most concerned about could extend for up to a year following the recent powerful earthquakes.
“It’s that six-month-to-one-year time frame that we’re worried about,” he said, adding that passing that period without a major event could bring some relief.
But he said increased seismic activity in Northern California also makes it difficult, in his view, to rule out other parts of the state.
“So really, all of California is problematic right now,” Burns warned.
Could earthquakes thousands of miles away affect California?
Burns believes major earthquakes can potentially affect distant geological systems by transferring or redistributing stress and seismic energy.
To support his theory, Burns has pointed to historical patterns involving powerful earthquakes in different parts of the Americas.
These are still only predictions. Scientists cannot currently forecast the precise date, location and magnitude of a future earthquake. While experts can identify areas with a higher long-term risk, there is no reliable method for determining exactly when a major quake will strike.
Burns himself acknowledged the uncertainty during his livestream.
“This is not an exact science,” he said.
Fears over California’s long-awaited ‘Big One’
California has long been preparing for the possibility of a catastrophic earthquake along the San Andreas Fault.
The fault system is capable of producing some of the largest earthquakes in the state, and scientists have spent decades studying what the consequences of a major rupture could look like.
Seismologist Dr. Lucy Jones has previously modeled a potential magnitude 7.8 earthquake on the southern San Andreas Fault. Such a disaster could produce prolonged and violent shaking, damage major infrastructure and disrupt water, transport and emergency services across a huge area.
But experts have repeatedly emphasized that while a major earthquake is inevitable over geological timescales, nobody can say when California’s next “Big One” will happen.
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