Polling analyst Nate Silver correctly predicted a huge night for Democrats in the midterms. Now he says he has a “weird intuition” that Donald Trump could find a reason to step down.
Nate Silver has a hunch about Donald Trump, and it’s a big one. The polling analyst, nicknamed the “election Nostradamus” by the Daily Mail, says he wouldn’t be surprised if the president found a way to leave the White House early.
His comments came days after the November 3 midterms, when Democrats took control of both the House and the Senate. Silver had predicted a landmark night for the party, and now Trump faces the final two years of his presidency with Congress against him.
Silver’s hunch about Trump’s future
Speaking on his podcast Still Counting, Silver explained what he thinks will happen next.
“I just had a weird intuition that maybe Trump will find some pretense to quit. You know what I mean? Because he could get very, very, very isolated and that also could make him dangerous,” he said.
He added that Trump still has leverage as president, especially with US allies. But within his own party, Silver believes something has shifted. “He has lost the fear factor,” he said.
Why the Republican Party could isolate Trump
According to Silver, it goes back to what he called the Republicans’ “deal with the devil” with Trump. He was quick to stress he didn’t mean Trump is evil. Rather, the party got what it wanted, including three Supreme Court justices and tax breaks for the wealthy, but at a price.
“Trump has so sucked out the oxygen from anybody else in the Republican party,” he said. Silver also pointed to Vice President JD Vance, calling it “kind of crazy” that Vance is seen as the leading nominee.
“I used to think of it more common for presidents and vice presidents to kind of be rivals, right? We haven’t seen that recently,” he said. “But that dynamic is going to be interesting.”
Shortly after the election, Vance posted on social media: “The reason we lost is the [Iran] war.” Trump himself told Fox News he believed “part” of the Republicans’ loss was down to Iran. Still, Vance’s post has left many wondering whether the two are drifting apart.
Silver jonkigly suggested that Trump might retreat to Mar-a-Lago or New York’s West Village and open a karaoke bar, leaving Vance to take over. His co-host Clare wasn’t convinced.
“No, I think he’s actually one of those people who, his life is all the people he employs, and his staff,” she said. “So I don’t think he’d hand it off.”
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