Russia’s latest actions involving the Baltic countries are raising concern among expert observers who believe the Kremlin may be reviving a familiar strategy.
Former Ukrainian interior ministry adviser Anton Gerashchenko has warned that Moscow’s recent rhetoric toward Latvia, Lithuania and Estonia should not be taken lightly.
According to him, the Kremlin is preparing to challenge what it describes as the treatment of Russian-speaking communities in the Baltic states, which is something he believes follows a pattern seen before previous conflicts.
The warning comes as Russia continues showcasing its military capabilities, including recent missile tests promoted by state media and officials close to the Kremlin.
Critics see familiar pattern
Gerashchenko shared his concerns on X after reports emerged suggesting Russia may seek international legal action concerning Russian speakers living in Latvia, Lithuania and Estonia.
He argued that Moscow is once again relying on rhetoric involving discrimination, language restrictions and so-called “Russophobia.”
“Moscow’s rhetoric is standard and familiar: “language bans,” “Russophobia,” and “persecution of dissent”,” Gerashchenko wrote.
According to him, the Kremlin portrays negotiations and international complaints as ineffective before escalating pressure through other channels.
Gerashchenko believes the legal argument itself may not be the real objective. Instead the process helps create a political narrative that can later be used to justify stronger measures.
Comparisons to Georgia and Ukraine
The former minister pointed to Russia’s actions before the 2008 war in Georgia.
For years, Moscow claimed ethnic Russians and Russian-speaking communities faced threats in regions including South Ossetia and Abkhazia. Russia later used the protection of Russian citizens as part of its justification for military intervention.
Gerashchenko says similar messaging appeared before Crimea was annexed in 2014 and again before Russia launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022.
He also highlighted a recent law signed by Vladimir Putin.
According to reports, the legislation allows Russia to use military force abroad to protect Russian citizens from what Moscow describes as persecution by courts whose authority it does not recognize.
“What an astonishing coincidence: two steps taken on the same day – a legal claim and expanded legal authorization for the use of force, formalized simultaneously,” Gerashchenko wrote.
Baltic nations protected by NATO
Despite the concern, Latvia, Lithuania and Estonia are not in the same position as countries previously targeted by Moscow.
All three Baltic nations are members of both NATO and the European Union, something widely viewed as a major deterrent.
Still, Gerashchenko warned that the Kremlin may be attempting to create uncertainty and establish a long-running dispute surrounding the rights of Russian-speaking populations.
“NATO membership remains the main deterrent for Moscow,” he wrote.
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