While Ukraine and Russia appear to have reached a tentative ceasefire agreement, Europe is bracing for what some defense analysts warn could be an ‘unthinkable’ invasion led by Vladimir Putin.
This week, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and Putin agreed to a partial ceasefire following negotiations with Donald Trump. However, the details remain unclear—there’s no confirmed start date, and the scope of what will be protected is still up in the air. Trump pushed for a full 30-day ceasefire, but Putin would only agree to a more limited truce.
It remains to be seen which critical infrastructures—such as power plants, railways, and ports—will be deemed off-limits. Ukraine is pushing for broad protections, while Russia appears willing to spare only energy infrastructure.
During the call, Trump floated the idea of the U.S. overseeing Ukraine’s power plants to ensure their security, according to a White House statement from Secretary of State Marco Rubio and national security adviser Mike Waltz. Trump reportedly told Zelenskyy that U.S. management of these facilities—backed by American expertise in energy and utilities—could be their best safeguard.
The proposal comes as the Trump administration seeks to finalize an agreement granting the U.S. access to Ukraine’s critical mineral resources, potentially as partial repayment for American military and financial aid during the war.
However, Zelenskyy clarified that discussions mainly centered on the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant—the largest in Europe—which has remained under Russian control since early in the war.
Despite ongoing ceasefire negotiations, Russia has continued drone strikes on Ukrainian targets, while Ukraine has retaliated against Russian military equipment. Officials from Ukraine, Russia, and the U.S. are set to meet in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia, on Sunday (March 23) to iron out the details of the agreement.
Even if Trump successfully brokers a peace deal, European defense officials fear it may only be a temporary pause before Russia shifts its focus elsewhere.
The BBC reports that European military strategists believe Russia is preparing for a much larger confrontation. With recent gains in Ukraine, some experts warn that Moscow could rebuild its forces and pose a direct threat to NATO’s eastern members—particularly the Baltic states—within the next three years.
A report from the Danish Defense Intelligence Service (DDIS), released in February, outlined three potential scenarios if the conflict in Ukraine comes to an end.
Assuming Russia does not engage in multiple wars simultaneously, the report suggests:
- Within six months, Russia could wage a localized war against a neighboring country.
- Within two years, it could launch a regional conflict in the Baltic Sea region.
- Within five years, Russia could initiate a large-scale war in Europe—provided the U.S. does not intervene.
However, the assessment does not account for potential NATO military reinforcements.
The DDIS report warns: “Russia is likely to be more willing to use military force in a regional war against one or more European NATO countries if it perceives NATO as militarily weakened or politically divided.”
“This is particularly true if Russia assesses that the U.S. cannot or will not support the European NATO countries in a war with Russia,” it contines.
For now, Ukraine holds onto hope for a lasting peace, but across Europe, governments are preparing for the worst.
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