Election forecaster Nate Silver, nicknamed the “election Nostradamus,” has revealed his pick for the 2028 Democratic presidential nominee, and it’s not Kamala Harris or Gavin Newsom.
Silver, who had predicted Democrats would take control of the House of Representatives and the Senate in last week’s midterms, said Georgia Senator Jon Ossoff is his “slam dunk number one pick.”
He made the comment on Saturday, November 7, at the Crooked Con political conference in Washington, DC.
What did Silver say?
Harris and Newsom, whose term as California governor ends in January, have both been widely discussed as potential 2028 contenders. Silver said he thinks the party may rally behind someone else.
“He won by what was like 16, 17, 18 points or something,” Silver, aka election Nostradamus, said, according to The Daily Beast. “He seems like the uniformly ‘compromise candidate’ between the progressive and the more centrist factions of the party. And he seems very talented.”
Silver also suggested Ossoff’s looks could work in his favor.
How does Ossoff stack up?
Ossoff topped an informal straw poll of attendees at Crooked Con with 38.4% of the vote. Harris tied for 16th place. A straw poll of conference attendees isn’t a scientific measure of the wider Democratic electorate, and Ossoff hasn’t said he plans to run for president.
Ossoff is also seen as the favorite on prediction markets such as Kalshi and Polymarket, where reports put his odds of winning the nomination at about one in four. Harris, meanwhile, remains ahead in national polling averages, according to IBTimes.
Silver hasn’t always picked Ossoff. Earlier reports had him tipping Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez as the most likely 2028 Democratic nominee.
What do we know about Ossoff?
Ossoff made history in 2021 when he became Georgia’s first Jewish senator. He has spoken out against the Trump administration, and he was reelected in the midterms last week, defeating Republican challenger Mike Collins by 59% to 41% in a state Donald Trump won in 2024.
In his victory speech, Ossoff said the results were proof that “the American people have rejected” the president.
Who will the Republicans pick?
It’s unclear who the Republican nominee will be in 2028, but it won’t be Trump. The 22nd Amendment says no one can be elected president more than twice.
Trump has nonetheless floated the idea of running again. He has said he “would love to run” for a third term, though he has also acknowledged the legal limits.
“The law is very strong on that,” he said. “The 22nd Amendment is very clear, and I believe in following the law.”
Share this with others to see what they think of this prediction for the next Presidential election in the United States.
Read more:
