A former White House adviser has warned that the next eight weeks following the midterm elections could be “the most dangerous of our lives.”
Robert Pape, a political science professor at the University of Chicago who has advised US administrations, made the claim on The Diary of a CEO podcast. He said the US is getting “deeper and deeper into an escalation trap,” and that three major issues are about to collide.
According to Pape, the three are the political fallout from the midterm elections, the escalation of the war in Iran, and Russia’s war in Ukraine. The eight-week window roughly covers the time between Election Day on November 3 and the new Congress being sworn in on January 3.
What did Pape say about the midterms?
Democrats won the midterms and are projected to take control of both the House and the Senate. President Donald Trump said Republicans lost because he wasn’t on the ballot.
Pape, the former White House advisor, said the biggest risk is the transition of power that follows. “It’s the eight most dangerous weeks because the most dangerous time is the transition of power,” he said.
He pointed to the aftermath of the 2020 presidential election, when supporters of Trump stormed the Capitol on January 6, 2021, after refusing to accept the result. “That occurred over a two-month period,” Pape said. “We are heading to a similar situation, and it’s worse now.”
He said the political consequences will test Trump’s power, but warned the risk doesn’t end with the midterms.
What about the war in Iran?
Pape said the political transition won’t happen on its own. He argued it could coincide with a further escalation in the Iran war, which he said the US is being drawn into step by step.
He has described this pattern as an “escalation trap,” in which each move up the ladder raises the risks.
What about Russia and Ukraine?
The third issue is Russia’s war in Ukraine. Pape said there are “growing signs” that European governments are extremely worried about what’s coming.
He suggested a cyberattack from Russia could put “enormous pressure” on Europe and the US to retaliate, and said that would risk a wider conflict. He defined a Third World War as a situation in which the world’s largest powers attack each other’s homelands and their militaries directly engage each other.
It’s a sobering forecast, but these are Pape’s own projections and not confirmed by officials.
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